This week was my birthday and, as with most years recently, it causes me to stop and ponder a wide variety of things.  Being a "baby boomer" I was particularly struck by an article that I read recently that, although written a little while back, is still extremely timely. I'd like to share excerpts of it with you and, as always, welcome your feedback and comments.

"For sole proprietorships, partnerships and multinationals alike, anticipating the unforeseen is essential to running a business successfully. But "what if-ing" and crystal balling take a back seat to dealing with what managers know will happen. Why, then, have so few industries, companies and managers prepared for what's absolutely certain: the disappearance, by way of retirement, of 76 million baby-boomers from the workforce, with too few workers in the next generation to replace them? And what opportunities will open up for workers of all ages as the workforce downsizes?

It's hardly alarmist to imagine the potential disruption in an economy without the generation of workers affectionately called "baby boomers." According to "The Aging of Aquarius: The Baby Boom Generation Matures," a landmark report by The Segal Company, the effect - even when conservatively calculated - includes:

• a net - and in some industries a dramatic - shortage of employees
• a loss of institutional knowledge that resides in senior managers and decision-makers
• the depletion of company and union retirement funds and health plans
• a burgeoning increase in services for retirees and the elderly
• huge reductions in public sector workforces, such as elementary/secondary teachers, administrators and school aides; college professors; social workers; and government employees
• similar reductions in private-sector industries, such as defense/aerospace, manufacturing, transportation and engineering

Older boomers have already begun to leave the workforce, but virtually all will have retired, or reduced their workforce participation significantly, in the next 15 years. The generation just behind them, sometimes referred to GenXers, is 35 percent smaller. By 2010 - just six years from now - 22 million boomers are likely to have retired, leaving 10 million jobs unfilled, according to Todd Jagerson and Anne Hyde of the Hyde Group, a Darien, Connecticut-based consulting firm.

"Companies, particularly those in mature industries, will experience a loss of key talent that could devastate some businesses and severely affect others," says Hyde. The issue, she says, is not whether the crisis is real, it's how companies will prepare for it.

The boomer exodus from the workforce isn't entirely gloomy. Trends in employment and society should mitigate some of the consequences of the crisis. Boomers will be healthier in their old age than any previous generation and are less likely to stop working when they retire. In fact, they'll need to continue working. The Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates that nearly two-thirds of boomers haven't saved enough to retire and nearly half have no significant savings at all.

Fortunately, businesses will want to retain older workers. And even where there are shortages, immigration may supply some of the needed workers in the next two decades. According to the Council of Economic Development (CED), "new immigrants will be the chief source of growth in the nation's working-age population over the next 10 years."
If you're a boomer whose interest is in working beyond conventional retirement age and who possesses skills and experience your company values, don't wait to talk to your HR administrator or immediate supervisor. Do it now and discuss your options, perhaps even negotiate the terms of your continued employment when you reach retirement age.

If you're an employer, plan and strategize - now. Welcome discussions with employees, identify the core skills you're likely to lose and plan to retain them. It's difficult enough to respond to the vagaries of a volatile, competitive marketplace. It's another to absolutely know what will happen and not be ready for it. The numbers, to quote a Hyde Group Crisis Update, "can't tell you what to do, but they do say, start doing something now."